This week, we’re going to do the ridiculous and predict the entire 2022 regular season, playoffs and the Superbowl…in August.
My NFC predictions had few surprises, but the AFC looks like a gauntlet with many excellent teams fighting for a few spots.
The AFC predictions!
AFC North
Baltimore – 12 – 5 – The Ravens had an historically awful 2021 in terms of their injury luck. With a healthy Lamar and a stable coaching staff under John Harbaugh, I can see Baltimore regaining their supremacy in the ultra-competitive North. One big question: will Lamar’s contract situation be a distraction, or motivate the former MVP to elevate his game to another level.
Cincinnati – 11 – 6 – The Cinderella story of 2021 is out to prove the haters wrong. They have responded to weaknesses by bringing in offensive line help, which will only make the Burrow – Chase combination even more lethal. King Joe’s meteoric rise will continue, even as the division’s solid defences look at locking down the big play offence that saw the Bengals make their incredible run down the stretch.
Pittsburgh – 11 – 6 – Big Ben’s retirement may be the biggest improvement for the Steelers. Yes, they have Mason Rudolph or Mitch Trubisky as his replacement, which do not inspire greatness, but Mike Tomlin’s men always show up when it matters. Many analysts see the AFC West as the premiere division in the league, but top to bottom, the North has no easy outs.
Cleveland – 6 – 11 – Kevin Stefanski has his work cut out for him this year. The mess (maybe the understatement of the year) that is the Deshaun Watson suspension is a huge distraction – a head coaches’ worst nightmare. While the Browns do have talent on both sides of the ball, depending on Jacoby Brissett and the oft injured Amari Cooper will spell disaster for the Browns, who may be looking to 2023 already.
AFC South
Indianapolis – 12 – 5 – Can Indy finally get over the hump that is the Titans in the South? This is a huge year for Reich and the Colts, as Tennessee seems on a bit of a slump, and the Jags and Texans are still below standard. You have the best young running back in the league in Jonathan Taylor behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. But while Matt Ryan’s addition has been getting rave reviews, I think it will be defence that carries Indy into the playoffs.
Tennessee – 9 – 8 – The physical nature of the Titans under Mike Vrabel has been a recipe for success, but eventually there needs to be an upgrade in talent. The offense has taken a big step back, and Derrick Henry’s huge workload has finally caught up with him. Ryan Tannehill hasn’t been the same since the departure of Arthur Smith, and the defence, while great, may be on the field a lot if the offence can’t move the ball.
Jacksonville – 6 – 11 – This season is already a success. Why? Because the team has an NFL head coach. It appears that the vibes are good in Jaguars camp as Doug Pederson takes over from the disastrous Urban Meyer experiment. No one is more relieved about this than second year prodigy Trevor Lawrence, who outplayed poor talent around him and awful coaching. While the Jags have a ways to go, they could surprise and get a few sneaky wins over top-flight competition later in the season (see Dallas – Week 15)
Houston – 3 – 14 – Lovie Smith is a head coach again, and you have to believe that the Texans wouldn’t fire back-to-back bosses in consecutive years. Nick Caserio may have found a hidden gem in Davis Mills, and his approach to teambuilding through the draft will pay dividends in the future. Smith’s goal will be to continue to improve, but not too quickly. If Davis is the man for the team in the long term, the Texans will be able to sink more resources into the defence and skill positions.
AFC East
Buffalo – 14 – 3 – The darling of NFL punditry, the Bills, led by Sean McDermott, are one of the AFC superpowers. Josh Allen will be playing behind a retooled O Line, which may lend itself to a more balanced attack under new OC Ken Dorsey. This can only make Allen more dangerous, as a running game can open up the play action explosiveness of receivers Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs. If they can get healthy, and stay healthy, the secondary can be elite, and the front seven features Von Miller, Ed Oliver and Matt Milano. The pundits are right.
New England – 11 – 6 – The offensive play calling situation is hard to understand, but that is just the way that Bill Belichick likes it. Whether it is Joe Judge, Matt Patricia or Bill himself, a key to the success for the Pats will be the continued development of Mac Jones. Will he be depended on to elevate the offense, or simply manage the game? The experienced defence will do well with Bill’s schemes provided they stay healthy.
Miami – 4 – 13 – There is a lot of hype about the Miami offence. Exciting sophomore Jaylen Waddle, combined with the Cheetah Tyreek Hill is tantalising. And with new coach Mike McDaniel bringing his version of the Shanahan system, the hype might be real. But I am not buying it. Number 1, the way former head coach Brian Flores was dismissed and the Ross mess will be a distraction. While Flores had issues with the front office, it seemed he had the team’s support. Will the team respond to a totally different personality in McDaniel? Number 2, Tua is not it. While he has shown flashes of competency, I don’t see him having the arm talent and awareness to maximise the talent on offence. The defence could prove me wrong, but I doubt it.
NY Jets – 3 – 14 – With the news that Zack Wilson’s knee injury he suffered in the Jets’ first preseason game may not be as severe as was feared, fans will be breathing a sigh of relief. Then, their vomit will catch in their throat when they realise that Zack Wilson is their starting QB. He has moxie and enjoys throwing the ball to the other team. The Jets have made some good draft picks, but still need to put it all together. Salah will get another two years but will need to make some quick improvements defensively soon.
AFC West
LA Chargers – 15 – 2 – Is this the year that the Chargers finally break out of their Charger-ness. They always seem to have great “on-paper” teams but lose head scratchers. The sky is the limit for MVP favourite Justin Herbert, with weapons and a very good offensive line. The defence has stars as well, and if they can stop the run, have a chance at running the table. They are in the AFC West, with 4 top 10 QBs, so there could be divisional cannibalisation, but with the great talent and an ascending coach in Brandon Staley, I like the Chargers for the #1 overall seed this year.
Kansas City – 12 – 5 – No Tyreek, no problem, right? Well, when you have Mahomes and Andy Reid, the offense will work. The defence under Steve Spagnuolo often over-performs based on their talent, and I can see them being solid after they invested in the draft. Watch out for the impacts of rookies George Karlaftis and Trent McDuffie.
Denver – 9 – 8 – Will Russ cook? With an awesome 1-2 punch at RB with Gordon and Williams, a very good offensive line, and solid, if unproven receivers, Wilson will look to make his mark in the AFC. The defence will need to replace Von Miller, but still have the best secondary in the league. I reckon Denver’s ceiling may be much higher than this record, but there are a number of players that need to mesh quickly with new head coach Hackett.
Las Vegas – 8 – 9 – Another team with a high floor, the Raiders and Derek Carr could cause some headaches for the AFC with their pass rush and an improving offence. Josh McDaniels’ first go around as head coach was a famous failure, but he seems to have come into the role with a new philosophy that is more player focused. The defence will have a good pass rush, led by Maxx Crosby and veteran Chandler Jones. One problem for the Raiders will be the O Line, which still features the head scratching legacy of another strange Gruden/Mayock draft, Alex Leatherwood. If Carr is pressured, it won’t matter that he has Adams and Waller to throw to.
That’s the way the AFC cookie is going to crumble, without any doubts. Next time, we’ll project our playoffs and the Super Bowl.
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